He said it is “because the Iranians are gradually, deliberately entering into what I call a zone of immunity by widening the redundancy of their plan” — replicating equipment on all levels — and “making it spread out over many more sites.”
Mr. Barak was asked if he foresaw a point when it would be impossible to block the Iranian program. His answer was, “Yes.”
A bluff?
Mark Fitzpatrick, director for anti-proliferation at the International Institute for Security Studies in London, said, “It’s a real possibility in the next nine months.”
The Israeli red lines, which if violated presumably mean an Israeli attack on Iranian sites, have been variously and unofficially described as Iran’s moving material into a virtually impenetrable mountain site at Fordow, near Qom; expanding the program’s number of advanced centrifuges; or expanding its stock of 20 percent enriched uranium.
None of this may jibe with what the Americans consider irreversible steps by the mullahs.
And none of what the administration and the European Union do to cut Iranian oil revenue (now in the face of Tehran’s threat to close oil tanker traffic in the Gulf at the Straits of Hormuz) may be sufficient to lead the Israelis to choose restraint.
The gauges indicating the likelihood of military action begin to function very soon.
By some time next June, said Mr. Dubowitz, “If there’s no impact on Iranian oil revenue, then you’re at the end of the sanctions road.”
That’s 2012 ticking. The volume changes over the weekend.
